The National Weather Service says that means flood forecasts have increased for the Mississippi River in the Quad Cities area.
Hydrologist Matt Wilson says early this week, two rounds of precipitation up north were not absorbed into the soil. Instead the rain and snow ran off into streams and tributaries of the Mississippi.
"You can see from Dubuque down to Burlington, we are expecting every point along the Mississippi mainstem to reach that major flood stage within the next seven days."
Wilson says usually when the Mississippi floods, tributaries rivers are also flooding. But so far, that's not the case this year. "It allows all the smaller streams and creeks to become a little bit of extra storage space along the banks as the river moves down."
In the Quad Cities, Wilson says the Mississippi is forecast to crest from May 2nd-May4th, 6 to 8 feet above flood stage (or 22 feet), plus or minus one foot. That range includes the 2019 record crest of 7.7 feet over flood stage (or 22.7 feet). Flood stage is 15 feet at Lock and Dam 15 in Rock Island.
He says to tie or break that record, it would have to rain a lot up north and locally while the river is cresting. He freuqently consults with the North Central River Forecast Center which has a "very high confidence in that lower range."
The climate outlook for the last half of April shows below normal precipitation (see maps below). And so far, the Quad Cities extended weather forecast through April 28th only has a couple of chances of precipitation. And those chances are low (see screenshot below).
