President Donald Trump has staked much of his political identity on his prowess as a dealmaker who is capable of bending adversaries to his will.
But Iran, until now, has proved resistant to that approach. Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in late February,
a 38-day military campaign has given way to a fragile ceasefire, a mutual blockade centered on the Strait of Hormuz, and a cycle of stalled negotiations punctuated by Trump's repeated threats to resume large-scale attacks.For more than six weeks now, the two countries have been locked in a standoff that has rattled global energy markets, regional stability, and Trump's domestic political standing.
It has left governments, militaries, corporations and communities around the world asking: 'what will Trump do next?'
On Monday, Trump announced he had called off a planned military strike at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He then said that "serious negotiations are now taking place," adding that multiple regional partners — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — had told him they believed "a deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America."
But even as he announced the pause, Trump told his military commanders to remain on standby for "a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached." That marked the latest spin in what has become a recurring cycle for Trump during this conflict: a deadline, a threat, a pullback, another threat.
Three of Trump's core stated war aims — Iran abandoning its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile development, and ending support for Iran's proxy forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — remain unmet.
Iran's response to this latest pause from the White House was hardly conciliatory.
"Our armed forces' fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing," Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on state television.
Iran's leverage over the Strait
Central to the impasse is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas moved before the conflict began. Iran's effective closure of the waterway, even as the U.S. continues to enforce its own blockade on Iranian ports, has sent energy prices higher worldwide and created a direct problem for American consumers.
An analysis of average national gas prices by AAA shows they have increased more than 50% since the start of the conflict. An AP-NORC poll conducted this past week showed that only a third of Americans currently approve of Trump's handling of the economy.
Trump's decision to utilize maximum economic and military pressure worked against Venezuela and placed severe strain on Cuba. But Iran presents a different challenge because of its ability to threaten one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.
Another challenge is that both sides believe that playing the waiting game will ultimately work in their favor. Vali Nasr, a scholar of Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, told NPR's Morning Edition that the current leadership in Tehran has drawn a sharp distinction between Trump's military threats, which Iranian officials consider sincere, and his invitations to conduct diplomacy, which they do not.
"Iran does not take him seriously when he says he wants to negotiate," Nasr said, adding that Iranian officials have read U.S. diplomatic signals as a strategy designed to buy time and sow internal confusion rather than reach a genuine agreement. On several occasions, the U.S. and Israel have launched attacks against Iran amid negotiations.
No clear endgame
On the question of whether the conflict could settle into a prolonged frozen standoff, Nasr said he was skeptical that the current impasse will hold.
"The Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely, and the U.S. cannot maintain this blockade indefinitely," he said, citing the toll on the broader global economy as well as the limits of America's naval capabilities. "I don't think we're talking months — maybe a month."
Despite its battlefield losses, Iran has managed to keep its governing operations mostly intact and its grip on the Strait largely in place. But questions remain over Iran's long-term nuclear ambitions that the country's leaders have long insisted are civilian in nature. Trump has at times threatened to destroy them. But the government in Tehran is insistent on its right to develop peaceful nuclear energy.
The White House, for its part, maintains that its current posture has been successful.
"President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table," White House spokesperson Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.
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