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Spring Flood Risk Is Near Normal for Mississippi River in the Quad Cities

National Weather Service Quad Cities

For the first time in a couple of years, the chance of major flooding on the Mississippi River is not high.

The first Spring Flood Outlook from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities shows a few factors have reduced the risk to near normal chances for the river to reach or exceed flood stage from March through May.Hydrologist, Jessica Brooks, says it was warm during the first half of the winter, and the soil didn't get saturated. Parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are also experiencing drought conditions.

In addition, the ground is only frozen a few inches deep, which should allow melting snow and spring rain to be absorbed instead of running off into the Mississippi River.

So, the chance of minor flooding in the Quad Cities is 54%, and the chance of moderate flooding is 45%.

Credit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/probability_information.php?wfo=dvn&gage=mlii2 / National Weather Service Quad Cities
Weekly chance of exceeding river stage on the Rock River at Moline

Brooks says the local snowpack is very wet. It's holding two to four inches of water. That's likely to cause local tributaries to flow out of their banks.

For the Rock River at Moline, there's a 70% chance of moderate flooding, and a 50% chance of major flooding.

Credit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/probability_information.php?wfo=dvn&gage=dewi4 / National Weather Service Quad Cities
Weekly chance of exceeding river stage on the Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt

On the Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt, the risk of moderate flooding is 90%, and it's 75% for major flooding.

The next spring flood outlook will be released in two weeks (2/25/2021).

2021 02 12 QuadCities_2021S... by Michelle O'Neill

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