SARAH MCCAMMON, HOST:
An old saying holds that no plan survives the first contact with reality. That has applied to President Trump's plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine. And we have a story this morning of how the president's approach has shifted since he took office. In 2024, Trump talked of ending the war in a day, or even before his first day, as he told the National Guard Association.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after I win the presidency, I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled. I'll get it settled very fast.
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TRUMP: I don't want you guys going over there.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Trump planned to use salesmanship and his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin as well, it turned out, as leverage on Ukraine. In February, Trump publicly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a visit to the White House, one of many ways that he portrayed Zelenskyy as the problem.
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TRUMP: You're not in a good position.
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY: I'm listening.
TRUMP: You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards. But right now, you don't.
ZELENSKYY: I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious.
TRUMP: Yeah, you're playing cards.
MCCAMMON: In March, a reporter asked Trump if he believed that Putin wanted peace.
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TRUMP: I believe him, I believe him. I think we're doing very well with Russia.
INSKEEP: And now comes the contact with reality. Putin and his government have continued repeating the same phrases about needing to address the root causes of the war, meaning that they needed to achieve all of their original war aims. And the fight continued, as well as Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. In recent days, Trump said that Putin's talk often turns out to be, quote, "meaningless." And yesterday, the president of the United States announced details of a weapons deal to support Ukraine and said that Putin had misled him.
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TRUMP: And I always hang up saying, well, that was a nice phone call. And then missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city. And I say, that's strange. And after that happens three or four times, you say the talk doesn't mean anything.
MCCAMMON: Trump says he still expects a deal with Putin. He gave the Russian leader 50 days before the U.S. will impose economic penalties. While talking with reporters during a visit from NATO's secretary general, Trump boasted about his ability to make peace deals.
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TRUMP: We've been very successful in settling wars. You have India-Pakistan. You have Rwanda and the Congo. That was going on for 30 years. India, by the way, and Pakistan would've been a nuclear war within another week the way that was going. That was going very badly. We did that through trade.
INSKEEP: Did that through trade, he says, which is what he now seems to be talking of doing regarding Russia, threatening tariffs and other sanctions on Russia in 50 days if Russia doesn't make a peace deal.
So what is the president's approach now? Let's bring in Marc Caputo. He's a veteran covering Trump's campaigns and presidencies. He's now senior politics reporter for Axios. Good morning, Marc.
MARC CAPUTO: Good morning. How are you, Steve?
INSKEEP: So what do you think is driving the president's shift here?
CAPUTO: Reality. He's at sort of the acceptance stage of grief here and understands that Putin is really not as interested in making a peace deal as he thought. What you're hearing publicly is a lot of what he's saying privately. I think there's probably a few more F-bombs privately for the president in his frustrations. So he's done almost everything except for send Putin a box of chocolates to try to get him to the negotiating table in good faith. And now he realizes, well, I need to send a few missiles to Ukraine and start rattling the cages about slapping some sanctions on Ukraine and other people who - pardon me, slapping sanctions on Russia...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
CAPUTO: ...And other people who buy oil from Russia to sort of try to get them a little more in a negotiating posture because right now nothing's working.
INSKEEP: Thanks for noting that. When people talk about secondary sanctions, that's what they mean. We're going to sanction India or China, countries like that that are still buying Russian oil and get them in trouble for buying Russian oil. It's interesting also to note that he is still not truly cracking down on Russia, right? He says in 50 days, if Russia doesn't make a peace deal, then I'm going to crack down.
CAPUTO: Right. The last time they spoke on the phone, where one of the advisers to Trump had told me that Putin was, quote, "a jerk," Putin did make some comments about wanting a little more time. And so what I think is interesting is what Donald Trump is talking about in this time frame sort of matches up with what Putin was talking about. So there's a possibility that Trump is timing it this way in the hopes of sort of meeting Putin at a certain place. But one of the things that everyone has learned, including Donald Trump, about Putin is Putin's not that interested in peace in Ukraine.
INSKEEP: And I want to ask about how the president learns, how he takes things on board. And I'm just thinking a lot about this, as I'm sure that you do, when we consider an issue like tariffs. The president has always believed in tariffs. Contrary evidence has come in. He still fundamentally believes in tariffs. He was forced to back off on tariffs after Liberation Day because the stock market and other markets were cratering. But he's back with more tariffs. He still seems to believe in that approach, and stimuli that have come in have not changed his fundamental belief. Do you think that this...
CAPUTO: Right.
INSKEEP: ...This situation is a little different, though? Is he learning something about the realities of the world and the person that he thought Putin was and what he thought he could get done?
CAPUTO: I think he is. And I think he did learn from the tariffs as well. That's why he's sort of modulating in real time. But similar to the way the tariffs have been approached by Donald Trump, so he is and probably will continue to be in Ukraine, which is, directionally, he wants peace. And he's willing to almost give up anything to get it. If that means arming Ukraine, and if that means sending long-range missiles, which we've been told might be part of the package - it hasn't been confirmed - he's going to do it, even though it really upsets his MAGA base, which doesn't want to arm Ukraine and says Ukraine is not our problem. But Trump is really invested in doing this, so he's using every tool at his disposal. And now those tools are missiles.
INSKEEP: He keeps saying he is upset because Putin is killing people or having people killed in Ukraine. Do you think that is truly something that bothers the president, the idea of death and war?
CAPUTO: I'm told yes. And I'm told it's something that not only do we hear publicly but privately that he says. One of the things with Trump is, while he, let's say, charitably speaking, hasn't always been very kind of clear in telling the truth about a lot of things, what he says repeatedly publicly is what he's saying repeatedly privately. And we've got to accept at his word that this is something that really disturbs him and that he really wants to end.
INSKEEP: Marc Caputo is a senior politics reporter for Axios. Thanks for your insights. Really appreciate it.
CAPUTO: I appreciate it. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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