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QC Chamber Holds Economic Forecast

Kevin Depew, RSM Deputy Chief Economist
Kevin Depew, RSM Deputy Chief Economist

The U.S economy is "resilient." That's according to Kevin Depew, Deputy Chief Economist at RSM Accounting.

Last week, he spoke to business leaders and members of the Quad Cities Chamber of Commerce at Rhythm City Casino for its 2024 Economic Forecast breakfast.

While data does show the economy is on the upside, Depew says "operational leverage," or understanding how your business is performing, is more important than ever.

"When interest rates are near zero and capital is widely available it can cover up a lot of mistakes. And it can hide a lot of issues in the underlying business. When interest rates are higher that means you must be someone who executes, and operations must be something you truly understand."

A current model shows only a 25% chance of a national recession.

"The probability of another one-size-fits-all, every industry hit at once, every part of the country hit at once, type of recessions we've seen more recently, the probabilities of those are very very low. The probability of industry-specific contractions that maybe last six to eight months here and there, those are much higher, and those are the ones I think businesses should focus on, and communities should focus on."

Within the next couple of years, Depew believes the US economy will benefit from lower inflation. But the cost of corporate debt may present challenges.