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Could Trump win the presidency but lose the popular vote? It has happened before

Thanks to the quirks of the Electoral College system, a candidate can become president even if they don't win the majority of votes.

Republicans have lost seven of the last eight popular votes, save for George W. Bush in 2004. And yet, they've won the presidency three times during that period:

  • Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore by more than 500,000 votes, but — after a recount that devolved into weeks of legal disputes — ended up with 271 electoral votes to Gore's 266.
  • Bush, running against John Kerry, won both the popular and electoral vote in 2004 — the sole exception to this pattern.
  • Trump finished the 2016 election with 304 electoral vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 227. But he lost to her in the popular vote, 46.1% to 48.2%.

There's a chance this trend could repeat again this year.

Copyright 2024 NPR

Rachel Treisman (she/her) is a writer and editor for the Morning Edition live blog, which she helped launch in early 2021.